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Bottom Line: This defense is a step up from the one we faced last week. They don’t have a dominant defensive line that would really scare me, but they are an SEC DL and that’s scary enough. Jasper Brinkley is already on his way to dominating tackles totals again this year despite a bum ankle and I fully expect him to be all over the field. They have some serious speed at CB, making those bubble screens we threw so often last week both a little more likely to get picked and a little less effective if the blocks aren’t executed properly. Stafford’s arm strength doesn’t lend itself to those getting picked often, but if they’re already breaking, there’s no pass that can’t get snagged.

Key matchup to watch when we have the ball: You might as well pencil some variation of this in all year…watch our OL to see if they are able to open holes for our RBs and protect Stafford. That’s the key…it’s always the key, but even more so this year. Stafford has grown up a lot and appears more comfortable. The WRs are catching the ball. Our RBs are running hard and making folks miss. It basically boils down to how well our OL can block. At times on Saturday they struggled mightily.

The SC Game Overall

Any time we play Spurrier I get worried. He wants to beat us more than any team on his schedule every year. He hates UGA going way back to his playing days. Add on top of that the fact that we shut them out last year and he’s going to really be focused this week (not that he wouldn’t otherwise, but still). It’s obvious the shutout bothered him significantly because he mentioned several times this offseason that it really wasn’t a shutout as they were inside the 5 twice and just didn’t get it in. Hey Steve, that still counts.

Many SC fans are quick to point out how much Stafford struggled last year in Columbia, throwing 3 INTs (while discounting the fact it was his first significant time and it was in a very hostile environment). What they don’t seem to remember is how their seasoned, veteran QB nearly turned the ball over as often, fumbling twice. I think they’ll be surprised by the improvements in Stafford’s game since the last time they saw him. He really took off in the final 3 games of the season last year and what we saw Saturday seemed to be an even further progression. He wasn’t asked to throw downfield much, but he was in control of the offense and made all the right decisions…something that didn’t always happen last year. Maybe it’s that he and Bobo have a connection, maybe it’s just that he’s making the natural progression, maybe he’s Neo and he’s starting to believe.

As for the mode of attack this week, I think you’ll see some similarities in that we’ll continue to use screen passes and short quick drops to avoid protection issues. I don’t think we’ll run it as much as we did last week, but we’ll still key everything off the run, which opens our play action. The 2:1 run to pass ratio was skewed because of Richt’s decision to kill the clock in the 4th quarter. 3rd down conversions will be big as always…we were very good there last week. Our rushing game had its moments, but we were largely ineffective in terms of getting consistent holes for our RBs to run through. If we struggle again in terms of run blocking, our offensive success will come down to Stafford and company being able to pick up 3rd and longs. Of course, that goes back to protection (it’s a vicious cycle). In their opener, they struggled with numerous missed tackles. Given the speed of guys like Henderson, Moreno and Wilson, consistent missed tackles can translate into chunks of yards.

On defense, Spurrier will employee a similar attack. Our defense got surprising pressure Saturday. 5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss lead the SEC despite the higher level of competition that we faced versus what most teams did. We’ll try and get pressure without blitzing, as we always do, allowing our LBs and safeties to be in better position to defend the run as well as their backs and TEs in pass coverage. Spurrier’s offenses have always hinged on smart play by his QBs (which explains why he rotates them so freely). I can’t imagine Mitchell not starting on Saturday (Spurrier won’t announce until Thursday), but I suppose I could imagine him not finishing…Spurrier has yanked many a QB, many more talented than Mitchell, and he wants this game in a bad way. OSU rarely went deep yet we still managed to pressure their QB, mostly with multiple hats on the poor kid. If Spurrier feels confident enough in his protection to go with some deeper or slower developing routes, it will be interesting to see what happens.

No matter what you think, expect a battle. Under Richt, the average score in this series is 18-10. That’s a LOW scoring output and is indicative of how hard these games have been over the years. Last year’s 18-0 game wasn’t really sealed until late although our 3 turnovers certainly aided keeping them in the game, just like theirs aided keeping them out. If everything clicks and we continue to win the turnover battle we should win, but that’s by no means a given, especially with so many questions up front.

Positional Notes

With Lumpkin out with a broken thumb, it means Knowshon will get that many more touches and after Saturday, I think we can all agree that’s probably a good thing. He brought an energy and intensity to the field that I can’t remember seeing in a while. He reminds me a LOT of Cadillac Williams and not just because of the number (24). He’s quick, strong, not overly big, and just runs really hard. He makes folks miss and has the speed to hurt them once he gets past the first level. He’s going to be fun to watch for a while. While losing Lumpkin hurts, he wasn’t the starter and Moreno was already cutting into his carries. Barring an injury, we’ll be fine at RB Saturday.

“Bean” Anderson appears headed to redshirt after not dressing on Saturday. That’s a little surprising given his extra year of seasoning in prep school and the fact that Boling and Anderson are both seeing time as true frosh.

Sturdivant looks like he’s got the athleticism and feet you look for, but he’s got a ways to go before we can count LT as a strength.

The WRs need a big pat on the back, as they played nearly flawlessly. Downfield blocking was impressive across the board. Only one drop that I can recall and it was on a quite sharply thrown ball. This group is fast and not afraid to mix it up. Tony Wilson in particular looked great. Henderson showed his speed and shiftiness on those quick screens. Bailey looked better than ever and really could be in for the breakout we all hoped for.

We get back Chandler to start at TE this week which should help some in blocking. Figgins and Ward will continue to get snaps though.

Outside of Lumpkin we’re pretty healthy…it’s kinda nice.

Marcus Howard will wear #17 this week in honor of Antavious Coates, whose 4th career ACL injury has ended his career before it really got started. You may remember that Michael Johnson wore #4 a few years ago to honor Kentrell Curry for a similar reason. I love that stuff.